- Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) is forecast at $47.5 billion, about 17% of the whole season in five days.
- Mobile is expected to take 57.4% of online spend.
- Traffic from AI assistants to retail sites is forecast to grow 130%; it is still small, but it is the fastest-growing source.
- Social (+17%) and affiliates (+12%) are expected to grow much faster than paid search (+4%).
Checked 25 October 2026. Figures are Adobe Digital Insights’ US forecast, published 28 September 2026 and based on visits to US retail sites. They are forecasts, not results. Other markets differ, but the pattern of a short, mobile-heavy peak is now global.
01The peak days
The season runs two months, but Cyber Week does a disproportionate share of the work.12
Five days carry about one sixth of the season. A store that is slow, out of stock or under-budgeted that week loses sales it cannot recover in December.
02Where shoppers will come from
| Channel | Growth | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| AI services (traffic) | +130% | Small base, fastest growth. Product data decides if you are recommended. |
| Social media | +17% | Creators and shoppable video keep gaining share. |
| Affiliates | +12% | Deal sites and partner content convert at peak. |
| Paid search | +4% | Still the largest paid channel, but growing slowly and costing more. |
The direction is clear: discovery is moving from the search box to feeds, creators and AI answers. Paid search still does the heavy lifting, but the growth is elsewhere.3
03The AI shopper
Adobe measures AI traffic as clicks to retail sites from AI chat services and AI browsers. A 130% rise is a growth rate, not a share: AI is still a small slice of total visits. But this shopper arrives later in the decision, having already compared options.1
“Best gift under $50 for a runner”
AI answers with a shortlist built from product data, reviews and prices it can read.
Price, stock, delivery, returns
Missing shipping times or return policies make a product easy to drop from the list.
Arrives ready to buy
AI visitors usually land on a product page, not the home page. That page has to close the sale.
Track it separately
Set up an AI channel in GA4 before Black Friday so you can see what AI sends. Here’s how.
Turn the forecast into targets for your store
Enter last year’s online revenue for 1 November – 31 December. The planner applies Adobe’s growth rate and peak-day shares to show what your key days should deliver.
Runs in your browser; nothing is saved. Uses Adobe’s US shares (Cyber Week 17.3%, Cyber Monday 5.5% of the season). The split of Thursday to Sunday is our estimate, with Black Friday the biggest. Your own split may differ; use last year’s daily data if you have it.
04Five moves for the next 30 days
Fix mobile checkout first
With 57% of spend on phones, test checkout on a mid-range phone on mobile data. Remove every step you can.
Load budget into Cyber Week
Plan daily budgets for 26–30 November now, and agree who can raise them on the day.
Clean your product feed
Prices, stock, shipping and returns feed Shopping ads and AI answers. See Universal Cart readiness.
Brief creators and affiliates
Social and affiliates are growing fastest. Give partners codes, assets and dates two weeks ahead.
Protect your margin
Decide the deepest discount you can afford before the noise starts. Plan the profit before the discount.
The season is two months long. The result is decided in five days, mostly on a phone.
Common questions
How much will US shoppers spend online in holiday 2026?
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in US online sales from 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7% on 2025.
What will be the biggest online shopping day of 2026?
Cyber Monday, 30 November 2026, forecast by Adobe at $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year on year. Cyber Week, from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is forecast at $47.5 billion.
How much will AI drive holiday shopping in 2026?
Adobe forecasts that traffic to US retail sites from AI services, such as AI chat assistants and AI browsers, will grow 130% year on year this holiday season. It is a growth rate; AI is still a small share of total visits.
Which marketing channels will grow fastest this holiday season?
Adobe forecasts social media to grow 17% and affiliates 12% as sources of online sales, compared with 4% for paid search, which remains the largest paid channel.
Method & sources
Checked October 25, 2026. All forecast figures come from Adobe Digital Insights’ 2026 US holiday forecast (28 September 2026). Cyber Monday’s share is calculated from Adobe’s figures. Channel growth figures as reported in coverage of the forecast.
- Adobe, “U.S. holiday shopping season to hit record $275.1 billion online, rising 6.7% YoY”. news.adobe.com
- National Sporting Goods Association, “Adobe makes online shopping forecast for 2026 holiday season”. nsga.org
- Relevant Audience, “Adobe: $275.1B US holiday online spend, AI traffic +130%”. relevantaudience.com
- Digital Commerce 360, “Adobe projection: 2026 online holiday sales to reach $275.1 billion”. digitalcommerce360.com